This update is from a peer LGBT community activist who wants to remain anonymous. The update is accurate as of the December 4th update found on the California Secretary of State’s page on the AB1266 referendum update page.
• Counties that have completed the spot-checking of signature validity: 32 of 58.
• Percentage of total signatures turned in that have been through spot-checking: 24%.
• Number of total raw signatures turned into county officials: 614,311
• Number of those that MUST be valid (in this or any such referendum) to force a people’s vote on California’s new law that lets trans students access the facilities and sports teams that accord with their gender identity: 504,760.
• Number that must be PROJECTED to be valid at the conclusion of spot-checking to allow the measure to survive and move from spot-checking to a full check of every signature: 479,522 (95% of 504,760).
• Validity rate of all 614,311 signatures that were collected this time that must occur in order to go to the ballot: 82.16685%. (504,760 divided by 614,311.)
• PROJECTED validity rate in spot-checking of all 614,311 signatures that were collected this time that must occur if this is to survive spot-checking and go to a full check of each and every signature: 78.058508%. (479,522 divided by 614,311.)
• CURRENT validity rate of signatures at this point, with 32 of 58 counties having completed spot-checking of 24% of the total signatures turned in: 76.52%. (This figure is not an average of the percentages in the last column on the report from the Secretary of State — it is weighted by the number of signatures each county contributed to the overall effort.) [Most big counties have not yet reported.]
• At this current spot check validity rate, the repeal proponents’ signature spot check would indicate that they would fall 34,689 short of reaching 504,760 valid voter signatures that are required, as well as indicate they would be 9,452 short of 479,522 valid voter signatures — the valid voter spot check weighted number of all 614,311 signatures that would trigger a check of each and every signature of the 614,311 submitted signatures. Again, if the spot check doesn’t indicate that they have even 95% of 504,760 valid voter signatures, then this would end the effort to force a referendum aimed at repealing AB1266.
• Spot-check deadline: Jan. 8.
• Failure to qualify a referendum on AB1266 wouldn’t preclude a federal lawsuit towards the goal of declaring AB1266 unconstitutional.