Yet Another Update of California Referendum Targeting Trans Children

The data in this update is in large part from a peer LGBT community activist who wants to remain anonymous, and the commentary is mine. The update is accurate as of the December 10th update found on the California Secretary of State’s page on the AB1266 referendum update page. The position of the proponents has improved since the December 4th update.

• Counties that have completed the spot-checking of signature validity: 32 of 58.
• Percentage of total signatures turned in that have been through spot-checking: 34%.
• Number of total raw signatures turned into county officials: 614,311
• Number of those that MUST be valid (in this or any such referendum) to force a people’s vote on California’s new law that lets trans students access the facilities and sports teams that accord with their gender identity: 504,760.
• Number that must be PROJECTED to be valid at the conclusion of spot-checking to allow the measure to survive and move from spot-checking to a full check of every signature: 479,522 (95% of 504,760).
• Validity rate of all 614,311 signatures that were collected this time that must occur in order to go to the ballot: 82.16685%. (504,760 divided by 614,311.)
• PROJECTED validity rate in spot-checking of all 614,311 signatures that were collected this time that must occur if this is to survive spot-checking and go to a full check of each and every signature: 78.058508%. (479,522 divided by 614,311.)
• CURRENT validity rate of signatures at this point, with 37 of 58 counties having completed spot-checking of 34% of the total signatures turned in: 77.59%. (This figure is not an average of the percentages in the last column on the report from the Secretary of State — it is weighted by the number of signatures each county contributed to the overall effort.) [Most big counties have not yet reported.]
• At this current spot check validity rate, the repeal proponents’ signature spot check would indicate that they would fall 25,238 short of reaching 504,760 valid voter signatures that are required, as well as indicate they would be 2,874 short of 479,522 valid voter signatures — the valid voter spot check weighted number of all 614,311 signatures that would trigger a check of each and every signature of the 614,311 submitted signatures. Again, if the spot check doesn’t indicate that they have even 95% of 504,760 valid voter signatures, then this would end the effort to force a referendum aimed at repealing AB1266.
• Spot-check deadline: Jan. 8.
• It should be noted that Orange County (raw signature count: 58,192) is one of the largest conservative leaning counties in the state, and that is the large county that was one of the added to the list of counties that have reported in. Other large conservative leaning counties that have not reported as yet are San Bernardino (63,348), Riverside (42,050), and San Diego (72,542) counties. Los Angeles County (130,978), which likely saw more paid signature gathers (whose petitions traditionally have lower validity rates) is also one of the counties that hasn’t reported as yet.
• It should also be noted that Chino Hills, California borders Orange County to its south, and that Calvary Chapel, Chino Hills is one of the Initial members of the Privacy for All Students coalition. It’s a reasonable assumption that the Privacy For All Students coalition likely had a strong presence in conservative Orange County churches to collect signatures for their petitions (whose petitions would be expected to have higher validity rates). This will also likely be true for San Bernardino County where Calvary Chapel, Chino Hills is located.
• Failure to qualify a referendum on AB1266 wouldn’t preclude a federal lawsuit towards the goal of declaring AB1266 unconstitutional.